Cyclonic Storm (BIPARJOY) over Northeast Arabian Sea: Latest Updates and Impacts

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) "BIPARJOY" over the northeast Arabian Sea has exhibited continued north-northwestward movement in the last 06 hours. Presently, it is located near Latitude 21.2°N and Longitude 66.6°E, approximately 380km south of Karachi and 390km south of Thatta. With maximum sustained surface winds of 140-150 Km/hour and gusts reaching 170 Km/hour near the center, the cyclone showcases significant strength. Sea conditions in the vicinity of the system center are currently described as phenomenal, with a maximum wave height of 30 feet. Favorable environmental factors, such as a sea surface temperature of 29-30°C, low vertical wind shear, and upper-level divergence, are expected to sustain the cyclone's intensity throughout the forecast period.

According to projections based on the prevailing upper-level steering winds, VSCS "BIPARJOY" is anticipated to maintain its northward trajectory until the morning of 14 June. Subsequently, it is expected to recurve northeastward and make landfall between Keti Bandar (Southeast Sindh) and the Indian Gujarat coast on the afternoon/evening of 15 June as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS), packing winds of 100-120 Km/hour and gusts of 140 Km/hour. The Pakistan Meteorological Department's cyclone warning center in Karachi remains vigilant, continuously monitoring the system and providing updates as necessary.

Possible Impacts:

Widespread wind-dust/thunderstorm rain: As the cyclone approaches the southeast Sindh coast, widespread wind-dust/thunderstorm rain is expected. There is a likelihood of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in areas accompanied by squally winds of 80-100 Km/hour, with gusts up to 120 Km/hour. This scenario may occur in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts between 13 and 17 June.

• Dust/thunderstorm-rain in various districts: Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Shaheed Benazirabad, and Sanghar districts may experience dust/thunderstorm rain with a few heavy falls and squally winds of 60-80 Km/hour from 14 to 16 June.
• Isolated heavy rainfall in Balochistan: Dust/thunderstorm rain with isolated heavy falls is expected in Hub and Lasbella districts of Balochistan between 14 and 16 June.
• Potential damage and storm surge: The intensity of the squally winds could lead to damage in loose and vulnerable structures, including kutcha houses and solar panels. A storm surge of 3-3.5 meters (8-12 feet) is anticipated at the landfall point (Keti Bandar and surrounding areas), which may result in the inundation of low-lying settlements.
• Sea conditions and fishing advisory: Along the Sindh coast, sea conditions are expected to become very rough to high (2-2.5 meters), while the Balochistan coast (Sonmiani, Hub, Kund Malir, Ormara, and surroundings) may experience rough to very rough seas (2 meters). Fishermen are strongly advised to refrain from venturing into the open sea until the system has dissipated, which is expected by 17 June.

list of cyclones in Pakistan, karachi weather, pakistan weather map, weather in pakistan 10 days, weather tomorrow, weather karachi 15 days, weather karachi 30 days, karachi weather, rain